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Home Inferential Focus Inferential Focus - #200 - August 29, 2011 - Page 7
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IF 200 -- August 29, 2011 -- 7/20

PULSE OF THE U.S. ECONOMY  -  As a Guidance for Other Geographies
Economic Growth
Period
Data
Prev. Period
Year Ago
Gross Domestic Product
Q2:11
R    1.0%
R    0.4%
3.8%
Capacity Utilization
July-P
R    77.5%
R    76.9%
74.6%
Industrial Output
July-P
94.2
R    93.3
93.1
NonFarm Productivity/Unit Labor Costs
Q2:11
-0.3% / 4.4%
R    1.8% / -1.1%
-0.9% / -6.1%
Income, Consumpt. & Distribut.
Period
Data
Prev. Period
Year Ago
Personal Income / Spending - B$
June
12,982 / 10,644
R    12,964 / 10,666
12,482 / 10,281
Personal Saving Rate, St. Louis Fed
June
5.0%
R    5.0%
6.0%
Factory Shipments - B$
June
444.33
R    443.34
393.96
Wholesale/Business Sales - B$
June-P
395,837/1,187.84
393,520/1,183.61
342,915/1,056.9
Retail Store Sales - B$
July
390.42
R    386.61
359.73
New Home Sales - TU
July
298
R    300
279
Autos, Domestic/Import ... Units sold
July
165,484/342,317
198,388 /328,956
154,479/369,170
Inventories
Period
Data
Prev. Period
Year Ago
Business Inventories - B$
June
1,518.53
R    1,513.69
1,366.67
Business Inventories-to-Sales Ratio
June
1.28
1.28
1.29
Orders (Actual and Surveys)
Period
Data
Prev. Period
Year Ago
ISM-Manufacturing / NonManufacturing
July
50.9 / 52.7
R    55.3 / 53.3
55.1 / 54.3
NY Empire State Index
August
-7.7
R    -3.8
7.1
Durable Goods - B$
July
201.5
R    193.7
193.7
Factory Orders: New / Backlog - B$
June
440.69 / 863.24
444.45 / 860.75
408.87 / 803.90
NonDurable Goods Orders - B$
June
248.25
R    248.25
216.54
Budget & Trade
Period
Data
Prev. Period
Year Ago
Monthly Budget Statement - B$
July
-$129.4
-$43.1
-$165.0
BalanceOfPayments(incl.Services) - M$
Q1:11
-$119.3
R    -$112.2
-$118.3
Exports / Imports
Q2:11
R    1,763/2,184
1,750 / 2,174
1,645 / 2,082
Merchandise Trade Balance - B$
June
-$67.6
R    -$65.4
-$59.0
Inflation
Period
Data
Prev. Period
Year Ago
Consumer Price Index - c
July
225.9
225.7
218.0
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
Q2:11
R    2.4%
R    2.5%
1.5%
Producer Price Index - d
July
191.4
191.0
178.7
Industrial Price Index (JOC-ECRI) - f
Aug.26
131.56
131.29
115.27
Rate of Inflation
July
3.6%
R    3.6%
1.1%
Employment
Period
Data
Prev. Period
Year Ago
Civil Labor Force: Total / Employed - T
July
153,228/139,296
153,421/139,334
153,628/138,991
Employment Cost Index - e
Q2:11
116.6
116.6
114.7
All Non-Farm Payrolls - T
July-P
131,190
R    131,073
129,932
Payrolls: Goods Prod./Service - T
July-P
18,077 / 113,113
18,035 / 113,035
17,791 / 112,141
Government Payrolls - T
July-P
22,034
R    22,071
22,582
Unemployment Rate
July
9.1%
9.2%
9.5%
Construction
Period
Data
Prev. Period
Year Ago
Construction Spending - B$
June
772.3
R    770.5
810.4
New Housing Permits/Starts - TU
July
597 / 604
R    617 / 613
575 / 550
Confidence
Period
Data
Prev. Period
Year Ago
Consumer Confid. / Confer.Board
July
59.5
R    57.6
51.0
Phil. Fed Business Outlook Survey
July
3.2
-7.7
5.1
Univ. of Michigan Confidence Index
August
55.7
54.9
68.9
Leading Indicators - b (new methodology)
July
115.8
R    115.2
109.9
NOTES: a-1997 equals 100, b-1996 equals 100, c-1982/84 equals 100, d-1982 equals 100, e-Dec.2005 equals 100, f-final,
P-preliminary, R-revised, M$-Million dollars, B$-Billion dollars, T-Thousand, TU-Thousand Units

 

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